Probably, in their calculations, Anwar's only real strength is his popularity based on his personal charisma and moral standing. There is nothing much one can do about his charisma, hence the need to destroy his reputation. Given the reputations of many ministers in this country, straightforward adultery or something in that league would not be good, or rather, bad enough to damage Anwar irreparably.

Thus, the need for something truly scurrilous or scandalous in the form of the sodomy allegations given the presumed homophobia in our society. At first, in the earlier version which came out with the surat layang at the 1997 assembly, the allegations seemed plausible.

But as Anwar covered himself, by the time the book came out, the charges against Anwar had begun to overload. They eventually made so many allegations, probably making them up as they went along, in the hope that most people would believe at least some of them, and at least a few of them would stick and do the necessary damage.

Partly perhaps, but certainly not as intended. They have been their own worst enemies. Their flagrant disregard for at least nominally complying with accepted procedure has shocked even those usually blissfully insensitive to such matters. With the benefit of hindsight, some now argue that Dr Mahathir should instead have first charged Anwar, then eased him out of government and the party.

Whatever the reasons for the particular sequence adopted, it backfired.

J: As what happened began to sink in, popular support for Anwar quickly picked up. Yet, besides those completely committed to Anwar and those who reject everything Dr Mahathir claims, there are many who might have been more receptive to Dr Mahathir's claims if not for the manner in which he, the police and the prosecutors have conducted themselves. The arrests of those closest to Anwar in UMNO as well as ABIM and related leaders under the Internal Security Act have reminded everyone what Anwar's dismissal is all about, i.e. not sex, but power. Just look at the Inspector General of Police's press conference, where he unwittingly managed to convince those present that Malaysia becoming a police state. Or former Deputy Prime Minister Ghafar's Jakarta visit, where he managed to insult and antagonise almost everyone there. Or Dr Mahathir's claim that Anwar may have deliberately injured himself in the left eye to gain public sympathy.

J: There seems to be an irreversible sea change going on in Malay political culture. Most non-Malays are watching quietly from the sidelines, partly because they see this as an intra-Malay affair, and also because of the fear of violence, bearing in mind the May 1969 riots in KL and the May 1998 events in Jakarta, particularly traumatic for the ethnic Chinese. Their fear is that desperate politicians may chose to play the ethnic card, the traditional card of first choice in Malaysian politics.

Among Malays, even before Anwar was sacked, you have quiet, but widespread sympathy for jailed DAP Deputy Secretary General and Member of Parliament Lim Guan Eng. Not necessarily support for the DAP, but tremendous unease at the great injustice involved in jailing an opposition politician for championing the cause of an under-aged girl who had been (statutorily) raped and her helpless grandmother, while the man widely believed to be responsible toured the country to speak in rallies supporting the Prime Minister.

It's still difficult to say. But Anwar's dismissal and its aftermath have only further undermined Malay public confidence in the regime and the leader, greatly increasing the number of Malays ‘who can say no', opening up a new conjuncture in Malaysian politics.

Anwar's forces have no choice but to build a broad coalition with existing opposition forces in which they hope to and should play a leading role. With limited and deteriorating public confidence in the judicial system and process, the increasingly shared belief is that only an electoral victory from their combined strength can reverse Anwar's expected fate. That is still very much an uphill task.

But the unexpected developments and accompanying effervescence are also forcing ordinary people to think of alternatives, of reform, of new institutions for the creation and sustenance of a more decent and just society rid of the dominance of political business, money politics and related depravities. Beyond Mahathir versus Anwar, the legitimacy of many official institutions and public faith in them, especially among Malays, has been shaken as never before. But contrary to some pronouncements, this is unlikely to descend into anarchy, but rather, is leading to greater demands for democracy and accountability, though not necessarily in that language or idiom.

While the reform movement may fail, Malaysian politics and political culture will never be the same again.