The
paper looks in depth at Malaysia's
unorthodox capital and other currency
control measures introduced in September
1998. The failures of the international
financial liberalization advocated
by the Washington Consensus are
acknowledged at the outset. The
study seeks to explain the circumstances
in which Malaysia's controls were
introduced as well as assess their
nature and impact before drawing
some general lessons of relevance
to other emerging market economies.
The paper considers the recent evolution
of the Malaysian financial system
and regulation in the decade preceding
the outbreak of the crisis in mid-1997.
Early Malaysian policy responses
from July 1997 until September 1998
are then considered, followed by
a detailed consideration of the
nature of the control measures and
an assessment of their efficacy.
Finally, the actual significance
of the Malaysian controls is emphasized,
before some policy lessons are drawn.
The paper suggests caution in making
gross generalizations and instead
urges greater attention to context
and detail. Measures to insulate
the domestic banking system from
short-term volatility through regulatory
measures and capital controls on
easily reversible short-term inflows
as well as stricter prudential regulation
and supervision may be far more
effective and desirable.
Although the 1998 collapse was less
deep in Malaysia than in Thailand
and Indonesia, and the recovery
faster after early 1999, the pre-crisis
problems in Malaysia were less serious
to begin with, owing to strengthened
prudential regulations. There is
little evidence of any serious harm
to the Malaysian economy that can
be attributed to the introduction
of the controls, but it is impossible
to prove that the continuation of
the controls would have had absolutely
no negative effects on desired long-term
foreign direct investment. Capital
controls on outflows and other such
efforts to prop up a currency already
under attack may well be of limited
effectiveness, depending on very
specific circumstances. The absence
of serious damage attributable to
the Malaysian controls led then
IMF Managing Director Horst Kohler
to endorse the consideration of
controls on outflows for countries
in financial distress.
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